2024 Year In Review

Dear investor,

It’s the last Canadian Dividend Investing newsletter of 2024, which is the perfect time to reflect on the past year.

We’ll look back at what happened here over the last 52 weeks, and talk about what’s planned for 2025.

Plus, I’ll share my thoughts on what I think is going to happen with the markets in 2025, outlandish predictions that, unlike everyone else’s predictions, are 100% guaranteed to happen.

Or not. But they’re still fun!

Let’s get started.

2024 recap

2024 was a big year for Canadian Dividend Investing.

By the numbers, we achieved:

• A 62% increase in total subscribers

• A 71% increase in total views

  • With total views flirting with 250,000

• A 43% increase in total Twitter (X) followers

• 50 free editions of the newsletter

• 102 premium editions of the newsletter

• 157 different dividend stocks analyzed

• The creation of the Investing Resources page for premium subscribers

• Switched newsletter providers

I’m really excited about the direction the newsletter took in 2024. Back when I wrote the 2023 summary, I wanted to create an invaluable resource for Canadian dividend investors, so I made a few changes. I introduced a weekly roundup, which allowed me to cover 5-6 stocks each week versus the two I was covering before. I also pledged to deliver a weekly newsletter on big picture investing concepts.

I succeeded in both of those goals, and kept it up all year, too.

Top posts of 2024

The top 5 posts of 2024 (based on page views) were:

1. It’s official: I Just Threw in the Towel on BCE

This was easily the most controversial post I wrote in 2024. People blocked me over it. I also got a profanity-laden email from one (now former) subscriber about what an idiot I was for selling. Needless to say, I did not anticipate such a reaction.

The stock is down almost 20% versus when I sold and I still think the dividend will be cut in 2025, so I regret nothing.

2. Five Tips From the Best Investor You’ve Never Heard Of

The introduction of Scott Fraser, who quietly grew capital at 19.5% per year for 30 years — and didn’t make a whole lot of friends along the way. This was one of my favourites to write, Fraser really is an interesting guy.

3. Monarch Cement: The Best Stock You’ve Never Heard Of

Turns out I liked that headline style. I used it at least twice.

This post is the story on Monarch Cement, a little-followed cement producer in Kansas that offers high insider ownership, a natural moat to protect it from competitors, a very reasonable valuation, and a whole lot more. We love boring stocks around here, and that one delivers. What could be more boring than cement?

The stock is up 10% since I wrote about, plus dividends.

4. The Two Dividend Powerhouses I Bought With My 2024 TFSA Contribution

One of these is up more than 75% since I bought it, including dividends. The other one hasn’t performed as well but I still think it’s set up well for 2025. But, most importantly, both continue to have excellent underlying businesses, and are poised to pay steadily increasing dividends for years to come.

5. 10 Top Canadian Dividend Stocks to Buy (And Never Sell)

This was a fun one. I attempt to build a never-sell dividend portfolio with the kinds of stocks that you can hold no matter what happens. Did I succeed? Well, you can be the judge.

What about Nelson’s 2024?

I set myself three major goals for 2024. I wanted to:

1. Travel approximately 6-8 weeks of the year

2. Golf a whole bunch

3. Grow this newsletter

Let’s start with the first point. I succeeded in my travel goals, going to:

• Colombia

• Iceland

• Toronto

• Attended the CP Women’s Open in Calgary

• Spain (here right now, Hola! 👋)

Those four trips combined for about 7 weeks away from home. That’s way less than I traveled in 2023, but that was by design.

My second goal was to golf more. I played approximately 25 times in 2023, and about 30 times in 2024. The goal for 2025 is 35-40 times. There are a couple of friends who are retiring and/or going down to part-time at work in 2025, so that’ll help on that front.

I broke 90 a few times this year, and shot as low as 40 (on an easy 9-hole course) and 86 over a medium-difficulty 18-hole layout. I’ve set myself a stretch goal to break 80 next year, and will primarily work on my short game to try and accomplish that. I can hit the ball pretty good, but I’m consistently losing strokes around the green.

As for newsletter growth, I covered that above. It was a great year for Canadian Dividend Investing, and I think 2025 is going to be even better.

Nelson’s financial goals

I'll start with probably the most important stat.

My dividend income increased by approximately 7% in 2024. The increase was driven by reinvesting some dividends, plus dividend increases. 11 of my top 12 holdings (and 18 out of the top 20) increased dividends in 2024.

This is exactly what my portfolio was designed to do — deliver solid dividend growth. Total return was 20%+, although I just view that as a bonus. What I’m really worried about is that dividend income increasing over time.

In 2023, I was buying loads of higher yielding dividend stocks. They were almost universally destroyed, and value was everywhere. Everyone was convinced higher rates were here to stay and dozens of people told me I should’ve bought GICs instead.

I didn’t listen, and it was a great decision.

As spring turned to summer in 2024, those values were no longer there. I was finding value in a different part of the market, stocks that offered medium yields with medium growth potential. There were also pockets of value in the higher growth part of the market. So that’s where I focused my buying, especially in the second half of the year.

(As a reminder, I share all my portfolio buys and sells with premium subscribers)

This meant I only barely hit my (revised) 2024 income goal, which was 130% of our household spending. Remember, I retired at the end of 2022 with 125% of our household spending covered by dividends.

My goal for 2025 is another 7% increase in dividend income. This, combined with a 2% increase in our household spending, should increase our dividend coverage ratio to 135% of household spending.

I’ll accomplish this via organic dividend raises from the portfolio, as well as reinvesting a portion of our dividends — just like I’ve done the last couple of years.

Inevitably, when I discuss our personal 2% inflation rate, I get a lot of pushback. I should live more, they say, and spend more. But my household spending number includes all sorts of luxuries — including our collective travel budget, my golf habit, and even various donations. It’s not some sort of barebones retirement that suffers from constant sacrifice. It’s a rich life that I really enjoy.

We keep our overall costs down by:

• Remaining mortgage free

• Driving two paid-off cars

• Eating at home most nights

• Embracing various low-cost hobbies

• Using my grocery expertise to save money on groceries

We then put the savings into things we value, like travel.

What will 2025 look like around here?

You won’t see too many changes around here in 2025, just a few tweaks here and there.

One thing that I’m going to focus on is written content. That means that the CDI Podcast is officially dead — although I’ll be making some appearances on various other pods. I’ll let you guys know when those happen.

Written content will take different forms in 2025, so keep an eye out for things like one-pagers, special reports, industry analysis, and even some things that are a little more substantive.

All of these resources will be shared with premium subscribers first, but free subscribers can also count on receiving at least some of this wisdom.

I’ll also remain active on Twitter (X), where I share all sorts of interesting stuff — plus some hot takes.

Speaking of hot takes…

8 fearless predictions for 2025

Here we go. 8 things that I think will happen in 2025. As I mentioned at the top, there is a 100% chance these happen, so we’ll all just have to act surprised at the end of 2025.

1. Boring dividend stocks outperform the S&P 500 in 2025

The S&P 500 is a great index, and owning it over the long-term isn’t a bad idea. But over the short-term it’s clearly overvalued, and I believe that’ll translate into a relatively poor performance in 2025.

2. Canadian/foreign stocks outperform U.S. ones

These stocks are quite cheap versus the S&P 500, and should see some sort of recovery in 2025.

3. Canada elects a new government

The Trudeau government just can’t recover, and will lose the 2025 general election to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party.

4. The Canadian Dollar recovers

Buoyed by a Conservative victory and status quo on the the North American free trade agreement (i.e. no tariffs), the Canadian Dollar has a much better 2025 versus 2024.

5. The crypto bubble pops

I continue to believe that all the problems crypto “solves” have already been solved by more legitimate means, plus the sector is a magnet for unsavory people. Thousands of Canadians are getting scammed by legitimate looking crypto investments as we speak, and that should piss more people off. The bubble will pop in 2025 and governments will start severely regulating the sector in 2026.

6. Interest rates continue to fall in Canada

Rates will continue to fall in Canada, bringing relief to homeowners who are forced to renew mortgages in 2025 and 2026. This should also help Canadian REITs have a nice year.

7. House prices start going higher again

Lower interest rates plus a better Canadian economy will enable more young people to start their climb up the property ladder in 2025. This will help stabilize the Canadian housing market — although I still think the Toronto condo market will be weak. Canadian housing bears will take the L in 2025, just like they have in 14 of the last 15 years.

8. Inflation is officially tamed

In 2025, Canada’s inflation will officially fall below 2% again.

How many of these predictions will come true? I’m hoping for about 6/8, but realistically it’ll probably be like 3/8. Predicting is hard! That’s why I usually don’t even bother with macro.

The bottom line

Thanks to everyone for reading and following along in 2024.

I officially have a small army of readers, and I appreciate each and every one of you. Even if I’m sometimes too slow at responding to emails. (Sorry!)

I wish everyone reading a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. I hope everyone gets a chance to refresh, recharge, and eat too much of the good stuff.

I’ll see you back here on January 12th.